FACT CHECK: Trump Falsely Claims Historic Turnaround
gvw_randy_reed
By Randy Reed, Operations Manager
Published 7 years ago on
July 27, 2018

Share

WASHINGTON— President Donald Trump falsely claimed Friday he’s pulled off “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”
Speaking at the White House after the government reported that the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, Trump declared that the gains were sustainable and would only accelerate. Few economists outside the administration agree with this claim.
His remarks followed events Thursday in Iowa and Illinois, where Trump falsely repeated a claim that the U.S. economy is the best “we’ve ever had” and incorrectly asserted that Canada’s trade market is “totally closed.”
Here’s a look at the claims:

10th Year of Growth

TRUMP: “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” — remarks Friday at the White House.
THE FACTS: Trump didn’t inherit a fixer-upper economy.
The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery from the Great Recession that began under President Barack Obama. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.
While Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, it exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency. But quarterly figures are volatile and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2015.
The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren’t increasing their output as quickly as in the past.
Both of those factors are largely beyond Trump’s control.

Trade Deficit Dips

TRUMP: “One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we’ve been ripped off by the world — has dropped.”
THE FACTS: Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth in the April-June quarter, but it’s not necessarily for a positive reason.
The president has been floating plans to slap import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to the risk of retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S. goods.
This threat of an escalating trade war has led many companies to increase their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.
Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the result is that the gains from trade in the second quarter will not be repeated.

Economy Trails Other Years

TRUMP: “We’re having the best economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country.” — remarks in Granite City, Illinois.
THE FACTS: Even allowing for Trump’s tendency to exaggerate, this overstates things.
The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below the 4 percent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.
Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic growth topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual rate it hasn’t touched since.

Canada “Totally Closed” Market

TRUMP: “The Canadians, you have a totally closed market … they have a 375 percent tax on dairy products, other than that it’s wonderful to deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” — remarks in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: No, it’s not totally closed. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s market is almost totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.
Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada last year.

DON'T MISS

23 for ’23: A Year in Photos

DON'T MISS

See How this Fresno roastery sends aid to Northern Thailand.

DON'T MISS

District Says Fresno Teachers Contract Proposal Would Bankrupt Budget Reserves by Year 3

DON'T MISS

Trump Vows to Ban Gaza Refugees, Expand Muslim Travel Ban If He Wins

DON'T MISS

The Supreme Court Orders Makers of Gun Parts to Comply with Rules on Ghost Guns

DON'T MISS

George W. Bush for Speaker? A Democratic Lawmaker Thinks It’s Possible

DON'T MISS

Former Navy IT Manager Gets Five Years for Hacking, ID Theft

DON'T MISS

Gunman Kills Two Swedes in Brussels, Prompting Terror Alert and Halt of Belgium-Sweden Soccer Match

DON'T MISS

Zakaria: The Best Response to Hamas Would Be to Keep the Saudi Deal Alive

DON'T MISS

Groundbreaking Human Brain Atlas Offers New Hope for Treating Neurological Disorders

UP NEXT

District to Fresno Teachers: Read Our Proposal Before Taking Strike Vote

UP NEXT

State Department Memo Warns US Diplomats: No Gaza ‘De-Escalation’ Talk

UP NEXT

George W. Bush for Speaker? A Democratic Lawmaker Thinks It’s Possible

UP NEXT

Jim Jordan’s Rapid Rise Cheered by Trump and Far Right. Could It Make Him Speaker?

UP NEXT

What Does Destroying Gaza Solve?

UP NEXT

Trump Vows to Ban Gaza Refugees, Expand Muslim Travel Ban If He Wins

UP NEXT

The Supreme Court Orders Makers of Gun Parts to Comply with Rules on Ghost Guns

UP NEXT

Zakaria: The Best Response to Hamas Would Be to Keep the Saudi Deal Alive

UP NEXT

Oprah Winfrey Proposed 2020 Presidential Run with Mitt Romney, New Book Reveals

UP NEXT

Trump Has Narrow Gag Order Imposed on Him by Federal Judge Overseeing 2020 Election Case

You May like

Trump Vows to Ban Gaza Refugees, Expand Muslim Travel Ban If He Wins

1 year ago

The Supreme Court Orders Makers of Gun Parts to Comply with Rules on Ghost Guns

1 year ago

George W. Bush for Speaker? A Democratic Lawmaker Thinks It’s Possible

1 year ago

Former Navy IT Manager Gets Five Years for Hacking, ID Theft

1 year ago

Gunman Kills Two Swedes in Brussels, Prompting Terror Alert and Halt of Belgium-Sweden Soccer Match

1 year ago

Zakaria: The Best Response to Hamas Would Be to Keep the Saudi Deal Alive

1 year ago

Groundbreaking Human Brain Atlas Offers New Hope for Treating Neurological Disorders

1 year ago

Newsom Signs Law to Slowly Raise Healthcare Minimum Wage to $25

1 year ago

Former Fresno CC Coach Ed Madec Arrested for Allegedly Threatening to Kill Chancellor

1 year ago

Jim Jordan’s Rapid Rise Cheered by Trump and Far Right. Could It Make Him Speaker?

1 year ago

HOT OFF THE PRESS

23 for ’23: A Year in Photos

1 year ago

1 year ago

Trump Vows to Ban Gaza Refugees, Expand Muslim Travel Ban If He Wins

1 year ago

The Supreme Court Orders Makers of Gun Parts to Comply with Rules on Ghost Guns

Photo of a hacker typing on a laptop

1 year ago

Former Navy IT Manager Gets Five Years for Hacking, ID Theft

1 year ago

Gunman Kills Two Swedes in Brussels, Prompting Terror Alert and Halt of Belgium-Sweden Soccer Match

1 year ago

Zakaria: The Best Response to Hamas Would Be to Keep the Saudi Deal Alive